Overview of Zinc Oxide Orders Across Sectors: Will End-Use Consumption Regain Momentum? [SMM Analysis]

SMM February 20 News:

In 2025, most zinc oxide enterprises scheduled their Chinese New Year break around January 26, with the majority resuming operations between the eighth day of the lunar calendar and the Lantern Festival. The average holiday duration was approximately 20 days. Post-holiday data indicates a gradual increase in operating rates. So, how are the current orders across downstream sectors?

Rubber Sector: As a key downstream market for zinc oxide, the recent order performance in the rubber sector has been mixed. According to feedback from large enterprises, orders for semi-steel tires have mostly returned to normal, while orders for all-steel tires have declined slightly due to price reductions caused by market competition, compressing the profits of zinc oxide enterprises. Some companies have intentionally reduced their all-steel tire order volumes. For small and medium-sized enterprises, rubber orders are still recovering and require more time to fully improve. May is typically the peak season for tire orders, so companies remain optimistic about future order growth.

Ceramics Sector: Traditionally, winter is the off-season for ceramic orders. China's real estate market remains relatively sluggish, with local housing markets primarily aiming for stabilization. According to enterprises, downstream consumption, whether for construction ceramics or daily-use ceramics, is also in a recovery phase. Many downstream ceramic factories have yet to resume operations, leading some zinc oxide factories to remain on holiday, awaiting downstream activity. Meanwhile, a few major clients have shown relatively stable orders, resulting in decent performance in earlier orders.

Feed Sector: Regarding feed orders, some enterprises reported that the hog inventory was subject to requirements before the holiday, and certain regions experienced severe swine fever outbreaks. Currently, feed orders have not fully regained momentum. Large enterprises have relatively stable orders, while smaller enterprises face weaker demand. Overall, the feed sector is also gradually recovering. Looking ahead, companies suggest paying attention to potential policy requirements regarding hog inventory levels.

Other Sector Orders: For die-casting resistors, chemicals, food, and export orders, most enterprises indicated that these orders account for a relatively small market share. Although downstream enterprises have resumed operations, their production status remains unclear.

In summary, the current risk points for zinc oxide enterprises mainly include the following:

1. The frequent tariff measures imposed by the Trump administration and their potential impact on downstream export orders.

2. The upcoming Two Sessions, with many zinc oxide enterprises located in north China, raising concerns about potential production restrictions due to environmental protection measures.

3. Concerns among enterprises about possible restrictions on hog inventory levels in the future.

Overall, zinc oxide enterprises remain relatively optimistic about future orders. Due to the February Chinese New Year and downstream consumption, some end-user enterprises have yet to resume operations. However, the overall situation is expected to improve by March.

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